Last week (October, 31 – November, 6), russia suffered a series of diplomatic defeats.
First of all, moscow has actually resumed the implementation of the “grain agreement” despite all the statements from russian officials. In addition, the IAEA mission published the results of the inspection and confirmed “no signs of Ukraine developing a dirty bomb”, which also does not play into the hands of kremlin propaganda.
However, diplomatic defeats in the civilized world of the rf are most likely to compensate for the supply of drones and, probably, of ballistic missiles from Iran and for the potential import of ammunition from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. At the moment, the kremlin does not have any choice.
Instead, the secretary of the rf security council, nikalay patrushev, made an absolutely schizophrenic statement that “the Anglo-Saxons, with the help of Ukraine, want to create a precedent for the further fragmentation of the russian ethnos, and their goal is complete eradication.”
This week, the russian dictator putin also spoke extensively. He said that he “treats Ukrainians with respect and warmth”. It is unclear how such “love” is combined in his head with systematic energy terrorism, which has already affected 40% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
More Defeats of russian Propaganda and Impudence
Despite putin’s blackmail and the “exit of russia” from the grain agreement, the movement of vessels with food supplies continues in the Black Sea. Thus, on October, 30, the UN, Turkey, and Ukraine agreed on the movement of 14 ships.
The russian delegation was “informed of these plans,” and maritime traffic really started. On the other hand, russian propagandists said: “We suspended participation and officially brought information about it to the Joint Coordination Center in Istanbul. Decisions made without us (if they have been adopted) do not oblige us to do anything. “
Likewise, the Permanent Representative of russia to the United Nations, vasilij niebienzja, said that “Moscow will not recognize the arrangements for the export of grain from Ukraine without our participation.”
The position of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was quite different. He saidt hat “Türkiye will continue its efforts to serve humanity”. Most likely, it was because of his position that russia “changed their mind” and returned to the “grain deal”, allegedly with new guarantees from Ukraine.
“rf believes that the received guarantees currently seem sufficient, and resumes the implementation of the agreement — the Initiative on the Safe Transportation of Grain and Foodstuffs from Ukrainian Ports (the“Black Sea Initiative”), which was suspended after the “terror attack ”in Sevastopol,” the russian defense ministry said.
At the same time, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Oleh Nikolenko, noted: “Our state did not assume any new obligations that would go beyond the existing ones in the grain agreement.”
However, the diplomatic defeat of the rf with the grain agreement was not the only filure this week. After the “whirlwind of phone calls” to the defense ministers of various states on Ukraine’s alleged development of a “dirty nuclear bomb,” the Ukrainian authorities reacted decisively. The IAEA inspectors have been invited to our country, and on October, 31, they began an examination of nuclear facilities.
As soon as few days later, another russian lie was officially debunked. IAEA Director General, Rafael Mariano Grossi, said that “in the past few days, the inspectors have been able to implement all the IAEA’s planned activities and have gained unimpeded access to the facilities. Based on the assessment of the findings available to date and of the information provided by Ukraine, the Agency has not identified any signs of undeclared nuclear activities or materials at those facilities. ”
We hope that we would not have to prove to anyone that there are no any “fighting Ukrainian mosquitoes.”
The third notable event in the context of the destruction of the myths of russian propaganda was the recently released statement of the Pentagon on the US inspection regarding the use of weapons in Ukraine. Thus, Brig. Gen. Patryk Ryder stated that “American representatives have been checking the use of Western weapons by Ukraine for the past few months and have not identified any signs of their being diverted for other purposes.” Such inspections have taken place over the past few months in various places in Ukraine.
Interestingly, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, russia almost threatened to our Western allies almost every day that aid to Ukraine would end up on the black market.
Earlier last week, russia again shelled Ukraine’s critical infrastructure. Missile hits were recorded in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy, Kyiv, and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts — a total of 18 objects in 10 regions.
Much of Ukraine’s territory, including several districts of the capital, turned out to be de-energized. There have also been disruptions in the water supply system. For example, in Kyiv, 80% of consumers were temporarily left without access to water.
Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Dmytro Kuleba, called such attacks of the russian federation a war against the civilian population and urged not to justify them, calling missile strikes “the answer”: “russia does this because it still has missiles and the desire to kill Ukrainians.”
Although at a press conference in Sochi, putin just said that “the massive rocket attack on Ukraine on Monday, October, 31, is partly a response to the downed ships of the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol.” Thus, the russian dictator once again confessed to the systematic deliberate destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, which, according to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, is nothing else but a genocide of the Ukrainian people.
Moreover, putin continues to declare, cynically and violently, that he treats Ukrainians with “respect and warmth”. Instead, according to Volodymyr Zelenskyi, who voiced at a meeting with the European Union Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, “terrorist attacks by the russian federation have already seriously damaged about 40% of the entire energy infrastructure of Ukraine, in particular TPPs, CHPPs and HPPs.” As a result, the President proposed to establish an “economic Ramstein” to support the Ukrainian economy, in particular the energy sector.
We should add that, according to the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, Oleksii Danilov, the “main ideologist” of the destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure is the Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of russia, sergej kirijenko, who is an expert in the field of energy.
Well, it has long been clear: all leaders of the rf are war criminals who must be brought before an international court.
Authoritarian Countries As kremlin’s Allies
On November, 5, Iran admitted for the first time the supply of drones to russia.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that a “small number” of drones had arrived in the rf a few months before russian troops invaded Ukraine on February, 24. Also, the official representative of Tehran denied that his country continued supplying drones to the kremlin, calling those statements “a fuss made by some Western countries.”
Instead, concerns about Iran’s involvement in the war against Ukraine are growing on the russian side. Thus, the Pentagon is concerned about the possible intentions of the rf to acquire Iranian missiles.
Brig. Gen. Patryk Ryder said that a number of reports “testify to the conspiratorial nature of the relations between russia and Iran in order to attack Ukrainian citizens and support the illegal russian occupation.”
This week, the US broadcaster CNN, citing sources familiar with Iran’s weapons program, reported that Iran is preparing for another delivery of weapons to the kremlin. It is about a thousand additional weapons, including short-range surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and strike drones.
According to CNN, a shipment of more than 200 drones will be sent in early November. This data was confirmed by Ukrainian intelligence service. They claims to supply more than 200 combat drones to the russian federation, including Shahed-136, Mohajer-6, and Arash-2. The drones will be delivered by the Caspian Sea to the port of Astrakhan.
However, this is not the only aggressive news from Iran. According to The Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia has warned the US that Iran is preparing to attack them and Iraq in the near future, in order to divert the population’s attention from the anti-government protests that have been going on for more than a month. In addition, official Washington believes that Iran has requested russia‘s assistance for their nuclear program.
US intelligence suggests that Iran has sought russia’s assistance in acquiring additional nuclear materials and manufacturing nuclear fuel. The same view is upheld by the Institute for War Studies (ISW). They believe that Iran has already begun to use russia’s dependence on the supply of kamikaze drones in exchange for assistance in implementing a nuclear program.
However, while there may be some speculations about Iran, the details about what kremlin offered to their other ally, the DPRK, remains vague.
Earlier this week, the United States accused North Korea of secretly supplying russia with a significant number of artillery shells to be used in the war in Ukraine. At that time, it also became known that Washington could strengthen its sanctions impact on the DPRK. This was stated by US State Department spokesman, Ned Price: “Just as we use and will use all tools to counter Iranian arms supply to russia, we will do the same when it comes to supply from the DPRK. Existing sanctions exist. We will consider additional tools and powers that we can employ to counter this activity. ”
As soon as on November, 5, it became known that a train with an unidentified cargo crossed the border between the countries through the Tumangan Friendship Bridge (Korean-Russian Friendship Bridge), which is the only overland connection between these states.
At present, it is not known whether there were ammunition in the train cars but the russian veterinary service reported that “the train crossed the border carrying 30 pedigreed horses for the DPRK”.
putin Complains About No Negotiations
Silvio Berlusconi, a former Italian prime minister and leader of the Forward, Italy! party, which is part of the current government coalition, believes that Ukraine can negotiate with russia if it stops receiving help with weapons and instead will be offered support only for recovery effort.
An Italian populist expressed the opinion that putin was supposedly a “man of peace”. The politician also humiliated himself when he said that he tried to call the russian speaker two times at the beginning of the war, but without success, but that he has not made any more attempts afterwards.
The statement seems quite revealing against the backdrop of the communication of the Italian government, which is not currently considering a new decree on sending weapons to Ukraine, claiming “the need to coordinate their actions with NATO and find out the details of Ukraine’s military needs.”
It is noteworthy that early last week, vladimir putin complained that Ukraine allegedly did not want to negotiate: “Here we agreed with them in Istanbul, and they just threw it all in the garbage bin. And now they shut themselves out from talking to us about anything. Well, how can we now discuss possible arrangements if the other side does not even have a slightest desire to talk to us. Well, we shall wait. Perhaps, some necessary conditions will ripen, and our goodwill is well known. It is not subject to any change or doubt .”
On the other hand, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi said that “there are still leaders of some countries who would want compromises with russia. However, it does not matter to him whether someone was trying to push towards them. After all, Ukraine has already been in negotiations with russia, and there is nothing new there, no surprises. “
The Washington Post writes that US President Joe Biden’s Administration privately urged Ukrainian leaders to declare their willingness to negotiate with russia. In particular, the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyi was asked to refute the public refusal to participate in peace negotiations while the dictator vladimir putin is in power in the russian federation.
Such calls do not come as pressure and do not intend to put russia and Ukraine at the negotiating table. In fact, US officials share the opinion of their Ukrainian colleagues that putin is not serious about negotiations at the moment. Instead, the US seeks to “secure support for countries whose citizens may be worried about the prospect of war for years to come”. However, at the moment, such statements of the US media do not change Ukraine’s position: Volodymyr Zelensky said that he will refuse to participate in the G20 summit to be held in Indonesia on November, 15–16, if putin attends.
After all, any reports of coercion to negotiate, in particular through nuclear blackmail, should be taken with a critical eye because Western allies, primarily the US, continue to help Ukraine.
Thus, during the visit of US Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, our country received several crucial assurances.
Firstly, he emphasized that any negotiations would take place with the involvement of Ukraine only, and they would begin after the complete de-occupation of Ukraine.
Secondly, Sullivan assured that regardless of the results of the Congressional elections to be held on November, 8, the bipartisan support of Ukraine will continue, which will allow us to continue support to our country to resist the aggression of the russian federation, both through the provision of weapons and through financial assistance.
There were also assurances that the United States would be notified of Ukraine’s needs for the Kherson operation and would provide the necessary assistance.
The words of Jake Sullivan were fully supported by the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andrii Yermak, assuring that Ukraine agreed with the United States on the conditions they would consider a victory: “It is the return of territorial integrity, it is compensation for all that the invaders have done to our country, it is the return of all our people from captivity, and it is the return of the world to a clear system of international security. These are the security guarantees that Ukraine needs so that it all never happens again in the future. ”
On the same day, the statements of US allies were reinforced by another package of aid from the official Washington, in the amount of $400 million. It will include T-72 tanks, 250 M1117 armored personnel carriers, 40 armored boats, Hawk anti-aircraft missile systems, and 1100 Phoenix Ghost drones.
It is prominent that last week Sweden, demonstrating its new defense policy, promised to provide Ukraine with modern weapons.
Spain is also handing over a new military assistance package, including an Aspide anti-aircraft battery, Hawk anti-aircraft systems, anti-tank missile systems, cannons, and shells to them.
At the same time, the Bulgarian parliament unblocked the supply of military assistance to Ukraine. We can only hope that the promises of the President of France about strengthening the air defense of Ukraine and the words of the Ambassador of Ukraine in Berlin, Oleksiy Makeyev, about “hopes for obtaining Leopard 2 tanks” will soon come true.
Well, vladimir putin can wait as long as he wants for the winter and the onset of cold weather to understand that frosty weather will not change Europe’s position in supporting Ukraine.