Last week (November 7–13) proved not easy for Russia.
On November, 9, the occupying forces announced the withdrawal of troops from the right-bank Kherson region to the left bank of the Dnieper River. In the kremlin, this retreat was called a “maneuver” designed to save the lives of russian soldiers. However, it should be understood that such a decision was made under the pressure of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which successfully advanced in the southern direction and already liberated Kherson on November, 11.
Against the backdrop of front-line defeats in Moscow, the desire to negotiate “taking into account the realities that have developed” and without “preconditions” was mentioned again. However, official Kyiv does not believe in the sincerity of the intentions of the russians, and insists that negotiations are possible only when Russia completely withdraws its troops from the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Russia’s failure to participate in the G-20 summit soon to be held in Indonesia was another defeat.
The decision must have been preconditioned by the reluctance of the rf’s president to suffer another humiliation from the leaders of the world’s leading states, who, due to his personal toxicity and the toxicity of russia, will avoid communicating with him and refuse to take a joint “family photo” traditional for such events. putin does not want to be a “white crow” because this is very much in contrast with the image of “superman” that he invented for himsels.
Instead, lavrov will go to Bali to humiliate himself. This is surely not putin but it’s not a bad option, either. Perhaps, after disgrace in the international arena, the rf leaders will sooner understand that normal treatment by the leading states of the world is possible only after the end of the war against Ukraine and after the liberation of the occupied territories, in particular of the Crimea.
russian maneuver retreat from Kherson
On November, 9, the new commander of the russian occupation troops in Ukraine, sergei surovikin, proposed to move the troops to the left bank of the Dnieper River, that is, to leave the occupied territories of the right bank of the Kherson region.
The rf Minister of Defense, shoigu, supported the proposal and gave a “green light” for the retreat.
In his report, surovikin said that the decision was not easy but it was caused by the desire to preserve the lives of soldiers and the fighting capacity of the group of troops. In addition, the russian general was not able to admit the fact of retreat but called it a “maneuver” instead.
Well, russians usually do not admit defeats but look for “creative” ways to call their retreat so as not to call it a retreat. Previously, they used the term “act of goodwill”, first, to indicate departure from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and then – from the Snake island.
Instead, in Kharkiv region, russia labelled their retreat as the “folding and redeployment of troops.”
Now we have the “maneuver”. But, this way or other, changing the order of the operands does not change the result.
In Ukraine, the response to russian statements about leaving Kherson was initially rather reserved. In particular, on November, 9, Volodymyr Zelensky said that in the south, the Armed Forces were advancing cautiously, so that the counterattack takes place with the least losses, since the enemy is not going to give up positions without a fight.
On the same day, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, said said that he could not confirm or refute the information about the so-called withdrawal of russian occupation troops from Kherson.At the same time, he reported that on November, 9, Ukrainian troops liberated 12 settlements in Kherson oblast.
The next day, on November, 10, it became known that Ukrainian troops liberated the city of Snihurivka in the south of Mykolaiv region, and a number of other settlements in the Kherson axis.
On November, 11, Ukrainian troops entered Kherson, where they received a very warm welcome, with flowers, Ukrainian flags, and tears, from local residents who have been waiting for 8 months for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
In his address, the President of Ukraine called the day of Kherson’s return a historic event: “The Kherson people were waiting. They never abandoned Ukraine. Hope for Ukraine always comes justified, and Ukraine always reclaims their own. I am happy to see how people, despite all the threats, despite the repression and abuse of the occupiers, kept Ukrainian flags, they believed in Ukraine. ”
At the same time, the head of the President’s Office, Andrii Yermak, tweeted to the russians trying to troll them: “The russian army is leaving the battlefield in a triathlon mode: hurdle race, broad jump, swimming.”
After this defeat, the spokesman for the rf president, dmitry peskov, had to explain whether the retreat of russian troops was humiliating for vladimir putin – it was a question posed to him by a foreign journalist. peskov evaded the answer claiming that some experts believe so, while others do not, and he himself will not comment on the positions of either of them.
Despite the vague wording, the fact that peskov had to comment on the “humiliation of putin” was not too pleasant for him.
The events in the south of Ukraine were also commented by the odious russian ex-president, dmitri medvedev. He suggested the russians not to worry because russia will still return Kherson one day.
russia wants negotiations “taking into account the reality that has developed”
We have repeatedly written that russia wants negotiations with Ukraine in order to end the war.
Previously, the kremlin insisted that negotiations were possible only on their terms, which in fact meant the defeat of Ukraine in the war and the abandonment of russia-seized territories. Certainly, Kyiv did not accept any such proposals and will not accept them. Instead, they offered their own terms and conditions, and the key condition is the withdrawal of rf troops from all the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Now, against the backdrop of defeats in the Kherson axis, russia can soften their negotiating position or at least pretend to be ready for concessions.
The assumption can be made after the recent statements by maria zakharova, the spokeswoman of the russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “As before, we are still open to negotiations. We never abandoned them. We are ready to conduct them, of course, with account for the circumstances that are emerging at the moment. “
However, zakharova did not explain what exactly those new “circumstances” meant. Most likely, russia is ready to swallow the bitter loss of Kherson which theyr consider their own territory after the fake “referendums”.
The desire to negotiate with Ukraine in order to end the war as soon as possible was also expressed by sergey ryabkov, deputy head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of russia. In a comment to Kommersant, he said: “I can only confirm the position – we are open to dialogue without preconditions. We were ready for this before, but Kyiv, at the command of thier western curators, interrupted the dialogue, which in general was moving forward, a document was being developed, now it is all in the past. What comes next is not up to us. “
The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacted to the russian remarks about the negotiations: “The statement of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia is another smokescreen. russian officials refer to the negotiations every time russian troops are defeated on the battlefield. moscow is not interested in restoring peace in Ukraine. Imitating the readiness for dialogue, the rf tries to buy time to regroup their military units, train the recently mobilized russians, solve the issue of arms shortages, eliminate shortcomings in logistics, and then, they plan, with renewed vigour, to starte new waves of aggression. We have already seen this in 2014-2015,” said Oleh Nikolenko, the spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine.
At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky cautioned against confusing russia’s need for a pause and the sincere desire for peace talks.”When russia really wants peace, we will really feel and see it. But one cannot wish for peace in words alone – words are not enough. To stop the war, withdraw your troops, stop killing people… They must make reparations for the damage they have caused and the criminals must be put into prison,” Zelensky said in an interview with CNN.
At the same time, the President of Ukraine does not exclude the possibility of peaceful negotiations with the rf but he is ready to talk to “a different russia”, which is ready to admit that they are occupiers.”They have to return everything. Land, rights, freedom, money. And most importantly – justice,” Zelensky explained. So far, according to him, he does not see the desire for such negotiations on the part of russia but the door is not closed for them.
putin does not go to the G20 summit because no one wants to talk to him
kremlin’s spokesman, smitri peskov, reported that the decision not to go to the G20 summit, to be held on November 15–16 in Indonesia, on the island of Bali, was made by therussian dictator himself:”It was the decision of the head of state, which is related to his schedule and the need for him to stay on the territory of the russian federation.”
However, the kremlin’s spokesperson never explained what exactly important plans of the russian president prevent him from attending the meeting of the leaders of the most influential countries of the world, as the dates of the event had been known a year ago.
We can assume that putin realizes that at this event, most world leaders will not communicate with him, and he does not want to be a “white crow”.
In addition, the influential US edition of Bloomberg, based on their sources, reported that the reason for putin’s non-participation at the G20 summit comes from the fact that the kremlin seeks to protect the president from potential high level tensions after the invasion of Ukraine.
Therefore, to “carry the ball” instead of putin, the head of the russian foreign ministry, sergey lavrov, will go to Bali. It will not be easy for him, either, as russia has become a symbol of toxicity for the civilized world. This statement is also confirmed by the British edition of “The Guardian.” They reported that world leaders would not take part in the official “family photo” during the G20 summit meeting due to general discomfort coming from russia’s presence.
Enough said, lavrov is in a bad spot, but russia had it coming, hadn’t they? As popular wisdom says, “As a man sows, so shall he reap.”
At the same time, the President of Ukraine was invited to the summit, and he confirmed his participation via videoconference.
We hope that Volodymyr Zelenskyi will manage to secure the support of the leaders of the leading countries of the world, in particular India and China, so that they consolidate their efforts and force russia to withdraw its troops from Ukraine.
In addition, the Ukrainian Parliament has registered a draft appeal to the G20 countries to exclude the russian federation from this influential group.
We certainly do not imply anything in particular, but there are definitely many worthy states in the world that can take russia’s place in this influential association.